Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Electoral map changes favor Democrats

Me worry about 2020, Naaaaaaaa
Donald Trump barely made it in 2016 with "thin margins" in the swing states. Racing ahead two years, "the shifting trends in the electoral map since his inauguration should make no one confident in his re-election chances" according to Salon. Examining voter preference changes between 2016 and 2019, a study found considerable differences in voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016

While most of the finds were favorable to Trump, one stands out as negative...
"Americans say that it is more important for the next president to have particular policy positions than particular demographic characteristics. For example, Americans say it’s more important that the next president advocate for racial and ethnic minorities (69 percent) than that they are a person of color (19 percent)."
All of this positive stuff was in 2016 and this is 2019. Compared to an 85% voter approval in 2016, today it is just 66 percent of these voters that still approve of Trump, a 19-point drop. Robert Griffin of the Voter Study Group said...
“Even small movement among these voters — who represented 9 percent of voters in 2016 — may prove significant heading into the 2020 presidential election. Obama-Trump voters are also disproportionately white, non-college educated and, as a result, are likely to be well distributed geographically for the purpose of electoral impact."
What is interesting is that both Obama and Trump won victories in the Electoral College, with voters switching from Democrat to Republican in the latter. The inference is that with all the changes in the polls which are significantly more negative for Trump, the switch will go back to the Democrats. In key states where Trump won in 2016, the net positive approval ratings were...
Wisconsin +6, Michigan +7, and Pennsylvania +10. By April 2019, these results change to Wisconsin -13, Michigan -10, and Pennsylvania -7.
Meanwhile, there are other states where Trump is also weak: Ohio -4, Arizona -7, Florida -2, North Carolina -2; Iowa -8. This bodes well for Democrats and since Iowa, with a minus 8 is one of the first indications of where the 2020 election is going with its Caucuses on February 3, 2020, we should have an early compass of where this election is going.

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