Showing posts with label Hispanic vote in 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hispanic vote in 2012. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: The Hispanic vote and the 12 swing states

Politico says “deep voter dissatisfaction with the economy” is a real threat to President Obama and congressional incumbents in twelve swing states, according to a new Gallup poll.  If you aren’t sure what those dozen states are here is a lineup: Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.  Gallup did their survey in October 2011. 



In general, the poll says 60 percent of the residents in those states don’t think they are any better off than they were in 2008, compared to 37 percent who think they are.  Measured with non-swing states, 54 percent of respondents said they weren’t better off, while 44 percent said they were better off.  I decided to take the 12 states and evaluate them in relation to their Hispanic population to see if the President can count on a majority of this vote in 2012.

The swing state with the most electoral votes is Florida counting 29, followed by Pennsylvania with 20, Ohio 18, Michigan 16, No. Carolina 15, Virginia 13, Wisconsin 10, Colorado 9, Nevada and Iowa with 6 each, New Mexico with 5 and New Hampshire with 4.  This represents a total of 151 electoral votes; 270 are needed to win.  Eight of these states have had increases in their Latino population of over 50 percent since 2002.

Of those with electoral votes of 10 or above, Hispanics have representative percentages in their states’ populations as follows: Florida 22.5%; Penn. 5,7%; Ohio 3.1%; Michigan 4.4%; No. Carolina 8.4%; Virginia 7.9%; and Wisconsin 5.7%.  But add to that smaller electoral number states like Colorado 20.7% Latino; Nevada 26.5 %; and New Mexico 46.3%, and the question is just how much impact can the Hispanic vote have?


2008 vote

Obama won an astounding 359 electoral votes in 2008 taking all the 2012 swing states.  He also walked away with 133 votes from non-swing states like Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois and New York.  Adding this to the 151 swing state votes and you have 284 electoral votes, enough to win the election.  The increase in the Latino population alone could be a factor in delivering the swing states in 2012. 

The question, of course, is whether Barack Obama can convince Hispanics in the swing states he’s the one, and if the economy continues to improve and deliver other states plus the additional five above.

There were 6,646,000 Latino voters in 2010, which amounted to 31.2 percent of eligible voters.  84.2 percent of those had some college and 79.4 percent had incomes of over $50,000.  In one study, the Democrats have an advantage with Hispanics with higher educational attainment, as well as those with longer tenure in the country.  I couldn’t find duration figures on legal Latinos in the U.S. but of the unauthorized 10.2 million here, nearly two-thirds have lived here for at least 10 years suggesting many citizens could be here even longer.

Two GOP states, Arizona and Texas, have a combined 49 electoral votes and could be up for grabs in November.  The Arizona Hispanic population is 29.6 percent, Texas 37.6 percent, both significant enough to at least turn the states purple and seriously challenge Republicans.  No one knows what the impact of the Latino vote will be this November, but it does look as if with the surge in population plus increased voter turnout, Democrats could be riding a wave.


2012 Electoral votes
 As you can see from the above, the numbers are there.  And if the GOP continues its rhetoric against the Hispanic community which doesn’t seem to be letting up, the Dems are even more of a sure bet for this vote.  But since the immigration issue is consistently ranked second with Latinos, behind the economy, but ahead of jobs, health care education and taxes, President Obama still has a lot of work to do.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Is Arizona the hub for turning out the Hispanic vote nationally in 2012?

All of a sudden President Obama is interested in Arizona.  He probably wrote it off in 2008 running against home grown John McCain, but he might have viewed the state in a different way had the Hispanic population been the factor then it is projected to be in 2012.  Activists are popping up everywhere and drives are active to get Latinos registered to vote.  With former State Sen. Russell Pearce, the racist who authored SB-1070 voted out of office, there is hope.   

Arizona’s Hispanic voting-age population has jumped from 455,000 nine years ago to 845,000 today, 19 percent of the state’s population eligible to vote.  These are daunting numbers when you consider just how much mock Gov. Jan Brewer and her lackeys in the Arizona’s legislature have pissed off Latinos.  One recent show of force was indicated by Hispanic firefighter Daniel Valenzuela beating a white businesswoman for a spot on the Phoenix City Council.  Latinos also played a big part in the defeat of Russell Pearce.

Obama’s chances to get the majority of the Hispanic vote is enhanced by the continued inflexible position Republican candidates are taking against Latinos.  With Arizona as the center of the anti-immigration movement, and the GOP firmly entrenched in its similar stance, plus rejuvenated movers and shakers out there touting the anti-immigration rhetoric, there’s little doubt that Hispanics will be fired up in 2012.

 

And then there’s Richard Carmona, a former U.S. surgeon general in President George W. Bush's administration, an Independent supported by Pres. Obama, running to fill Sen. Jon Kyl’s vacated seat.  If the map that has been presented by the Arizona Redistricting Commission stays in place, the fairer districts, according to everyone but Republicans, will give the Dems. a shot at U.S. Representative seats. 

Taking Arizona in 2012 is not really that far-fetched considering Obama won 45 percent of the state running against McCain in 2008.  But there are still the economics of the upcoming election and people’s financial situation plus continuing joblessness will affect the President, although the unemployment rate has dropped recently to 8.6 percent nationally.

Democrats are hoping to register approximately 300,000 new Latinos to vote prior to November 2012.  Add to that the 400,000 already registered already and you have a formidable force.  If they can be convinced to vote.  Even if they are legal in Arizona some Hispanics are still scared to stand up against the likes of Russell Pearce who still has plenty of anti-immigrant followers.

One bright spot, Colorado, by the grace of former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo’s drive to alienate Latinos in his state, was able to sign up 225,000 new Hispanics who voted in the 2008 election turning the state from red to blue.  Within 6 months of fake Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer signing anti-immigration law SB-1070 in 2010, 43,000 new Latinos were registered to vote in Colorado.  Obama would love to see a blue Arizona but am sure he would settle for the color purple.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Where is the Hispanic vote likely to go in 2012?

The first question is will Latinos compound their recent increases in population to make their presence known at the polls?  They’ve let themselves down recently, as in 2010 when they sat back and allowed the Republicans to take over the House, although they did win the Governorships in Nevada, New Mexico and Florida. 

But a Pew Research study in 2010 found that 44 percent of Hispanic Republicans planned to vote compared to only 28 percent of Hispanic Democrats.  When it is clear that the GOP still views Latinos in a negative light, it is hard to understand these figures.  Have they learned a lesson with the recent continued rhetoric on immigration reform from the right?

Josh Lederman of The Hill blog looks at 3 states to follow in 2012, but winning them won’t be easy.  If the President had put as much effort behind immigration reform as he did with healthcare in his first year, the numbers might be different.  Seven out of ten Hispanic registered voters are not happy with their personal situation and “frustrated” with both parties.  The building influence of the Latino vote is impressive and has to be reckoned with.
There are over 50 million Hispanics in the U.S. and those who are citizens will represent 10 percent of the adult population by the 2012 election, according to Hispanic News.  With over 60 percent earning incomes of over $35,000, around 44 percent are in the income category that Democrats will probably most appeal to.  But a study by the Center for Immigration Studies says partisanship remains strong regardless of economic standing.  As an average, Dems have a 20.5 point advantage over Republicans.

Following this same study, Democrats have a whopping 32 point lead with college-educated Latinos.  And the longer these folks are in the country, the stronger they lean to the left.  But Hispanic News tells us that even with a rapidly growing population, Latinos still don’t register to vote like Whites and Blacks.  Much of this can be attributed to the bigoted anti-immigrant laws passed recently in Arizona and Alabama.  Even the legals are still skeptical of the likes of a Joe Arpaio. (Arizona’s Sheriff who regularly intimidates and arrests immigrants)

Only around 60 percent of Hispanic citizens are registered to vote, compared to 70 percent of Blacks, 74 percent of Whites.  The HN site estimates that 21.5 million Latino citizen adults will be eligible to vote in 2012, leaving over 8 million to get registered.  However, this could all change with President Obama’s recent deportation policy to concentrate now on criminals.  It helps relieve law enforcement as well as recognizing the fact that some of the migrants caught in raids like those of Arizona Sheriff Arpaio are honest working individuals.



The 3 states up for grabs, as reported by The Hill’s Lederman are Arizona, Florida and Nevada.  Arizona, with a Latino population of 1,895,149 in 524,806 households is looking much better since the anti-immigration bigot, State Sen. Russell Pearce lost his seat in a recall.  Also, former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, an Independent but loyal to Democrats, will run to take over Republican Jon Kyl’s Senate seat.  And one prominent state Republican has said that based on his pissing off Hispanics, Romney would be lucky to get 9 percent of the Latino vote.

 Florida, on the other hand, is a hard state in which to predict the Hispanic vote, because of its diversification of immigrants from Cuba, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Central and South America.  A GOP strategist says you would insult them by making an appeal to everyone as a group. 

The question is, do even the Dems have the time and money to devise separate campaigns?  U.S. Sen. Bill nelson (D) will likely be running against Republican Connie Mack, whose criticism of Arizona’s immigration crackdown could garner Latino votes.  Total Hispanic population is 4,223,806 in 1,422,496 households.

Nevada, hard hit by a slumping economy fraught with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, has a smaller Latino presence; population 716,501 in 192,459 households.  Democrats are working hard in this state where Hispanics made up 16 percent of the electorate in 2010, giving Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) 66 percent support, 86 percent among Spanish-speaking voters.  Republican Dean Heller appointed to Jon Ensign’s seat after his resignation will run as an incumbent against whoever the Dems come up with.

The only state of the three not included in the USA Today/Gallup Poll 12 swing states is Arizona.  But with the recent extremist politics in this state voters seem to be fed up with, Arizona could go all the way over to the left side.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Barack Obama at the crossroads

Some are predicting gloom and doom for the President, yet others say he has a good chance in locking up the 270 electoral votes needed to win.  He had 365 in 2010 with nine considered toss up, five leaning Obama, and thirteen solid Obama; but 2012 is likely to be very close.  The site above provides some interesting insights into his win in 2012, and a clear roadmap to what he’s up against next year. 

As an example, solid states like Michigan may prove impossible to reclaim with an unemployment rate there of 11.1 percent.  Nevada, with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country could now be leaning right.  John Avlon on CNN News tested the theory of top political experts that says “…you can gauge a president's chances of re-election by looking at just a couple of key indicators -- job approval, unemployment and growth in gross domestic product.”  He concludes there is no reason for overconfidence for Mr. Obama.



His approval rating is 45 percent compared to Nixon, Reagan and Bill Clinton who had 49 percent at the same point in their administrations.  The closest unemployment rate to the current 9 percent was with Ronald Reagan at 8.5 percent.  And with this considered, Obama actually stands tall with the 45 percent, along with a personal approval rating of 70 percent.  What the former presidents didn’t have to contend with is today’s home foreclosure market.

One of the President’s biggest problems now is the ongoing European crisis, escalating up and down on almost a daily basis.  Greece gets repaired then Italy starts going down the tube.  Conversely, the two things that Obama has to shout about are the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the death of the dictator Muammar Gaddafi.  But Avlon notes that other figures are against him with American conservatives measured at 40 percent and liberals only 20 percent.


Back to the Electoral College, Chris Cillizza, writing for The Washington Post says Mr. Obama “…still retains several plausible pathways to the 270 electoral votes he needs.”  Cillizza even thinks he can lose important states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina and still win.  Further, the President’s 2010 election win with 365 electoral votes was the largest since Clinton’s 379 in 1996.  And Obama won three states in 2010 that no Democratic president has carried for over 20 years: Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia.


Carrying this further in a USA Today/Gallup Poll, it determined the 12 swing states most likely to decide the outcome of the 2012 election based on their voting histories.  They are: Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia in the South; Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the Mountain West; Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast.  I plan to analyze all these states in the future as well as others for characteristics that could be considered positive for Obama.

Indiana, which Obama carried in 2008 now seems to be lost to the GOP.  But Jim Messina, his campaign manager, says that Arizona could be a possibility in 2012.  The recall of Arizona State Sen. Senator Russell Pearce, a Republican, and replaced by a moderate, gives this call credence.  Then you have to consider a sleeping Hispanic population in this state coming alive in 2012.  

On the other hand twice as many Republicans voice an “extremely enthusiastic” attitude for voting next year than Democrats.  This is an inherent gene for the left and if someone doesn’t improve this kind of DNA before next November there will be problems.

Of course it all comes down to who is the GOP candidate that will run against the President, and every expert I have heard from says that is definitely important.  Even with a bunch of Keystone Kops leading into the Republican Primary, there is still a dedicated group of voters on the right that would follow any one of them off the ends of the earth.  However, it looks like it is going to be Mitt Romney and the fact that he is a moderate could be a real challenge to Obama.

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