Showing posts with label 2012 Electoral College. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Electoral College. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Obama’s momentum strengthens his Electoral vote advantage

John King of CNN says that Barack Obama “must make history again.”  He refers, of course, to the President’s huge win over Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008.  He became the first African American president, a fact that continues to bother many closet racists.  He had good ideas on how to take this country out of the mire George W. Bush had led America into, but many of his programs were stymied by a GOP Congress unwilling to support anything he proposed.

Middle cass on the brink
The GOP way
Some got through like his health care plan, the auto bailout and the stimulus programs.  During the whole process, Republicans brought the U.S. economy to the brink of disaster with their refusal to drop the tax breaks for the wealthy enacted under GWB.  And we will no doubt re-experience this log-jam once again in November and December of this year.  The election is November 6, and King says Obama has an easier path to 270 votes than Mitt Romney.

Here are the numbers from 5 Electoral College polls:

  • 270 To Win:            Obama 201   Romney 191
  • New York Times      Obama 237   Romney 206
  • Real Clear Politics   Obama 237   Romney 191
  • USA Today             Obama 196   Romney 191
  • CNN                        Obama 237   Romney 191

If you average these out, Obama comes out with 221.6, Romney 194.

If you add in the more liberal Huff Post poll where Obama is 313 to Romney’s 206, the new average is Obama 267.3, Romney 200.

But there is even more good news for the President.  New CNN battleground polls show high marks for the President compared to his GOP contender from likely voters in three top states:

  • Ohio             Obama 50%            Romney 43%
  • Florida          Obama 49%            Romney 44%
  • Virginia         Obama 49%            Romney 44%

The experts say that Mitt Romney must win Florida and Ohio.  Taking this even further, only 6% of Ohio voters are undecided, 5% for both Florida and Virginia.  That leaves the Romney/Ryan Bobbsey Twins little room in which to wiggle.

Obama's 2008 "Change"
History tells us that no incumbent has ever won the presidency since Franklin D. Roosevelt with unemployment over 8%, but apparently the voting public is saying, wait a minute, we’ve had enough of these radical conservatives and want more of the “change” Barack Obama promised.  The unemployment rate was 8.3% when Obama took office and remained the same as of August.  In Michigan where the auto bailout was felt strongest, Obama leads Romney 47% to 37%.    

And then there is the Hispanic vote which the GOP seems to have lost long ago.  No self-respecting Latino would vote for a party that has denied them their rights for years and continues to put barriers in the way of everything President Obama has tried to do for this group.  It is generally agreed that Barack Obama has not done enough for overall immigration reform but given the chance in a second term, I think this President will come through for Hispanics. 

Obama's Hispanic vote
Obama does hold his own with African-Americans, Latinos and young people, as well as women voters.  He does have problems like Wisconsin and North Carolina, among a few others.  But in my book, Romney signed his doom by selecting Paul Ryan as VP, just like McCain with Sarah Palin.  The latter was obviously unfit to run, but Ryan is equally radical in his politics, especially on the budget.  Even GWB said the budget he presented to him was “irresponsible.”

With Mitt Romney’s flip-flop positions combined with recent foot-in-mouth disease, he just might seal the deal sometime in October.  But Barack Obama has no reason to expect success at this point, only to make hay while the momentum continues.  Barring some catastrophic blunder or event, however, the current momentum could carry the President into November and a well-earned second term.

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