Showing posts with label Iowa caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa caucus. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Bernie Sanders v. Elizabeth Warren


He said...She said...There is much to explain in Tuesday night's debate

Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren's campaign has accused Bernie Sanders' campaign of sending volunteers out door-to-door trashing her. Bernie, of course, said he had nothing to do with it and apparently the cause was some over-zealous volunteers. We are talking about in Des Moines, where the Iowa Caucuses will be held on February 3, and a Democratic debate was held last night. More on that later today. The script in question "described Warren's appeal as limited to the highly educated and financially well off."

Bernie's press aids never denied that the document existed and the candidate commented...
“We have hundreds of employees. Elizabeth Warren has hundreds of employees. And people sometimes say things that they shouldn’t.”
First of all, is the statement in the realm of being accurate. If there is any accuracy to it, Warren's campaign may be pushing the envelope. She has been dropping in national polls of late. One page actually "included attacks on the electability of Warren, as well as Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg." If Bernie is playing tough now against his own people, it will hopefully prepare him to deal with Donald Trump in the coming election.

And then, there is a meeting that occurred around a year ago when Warren accuses of Sanders saying a woman couldn't win the election in 2020. My immediate thought is why it is just now coming to light now. Bernie denies saying it but Warren says there were witnesses. Here's Bernie's actual statement...
"It is ludicrous to believe that at the same meeting where Elizabeth Warren told me she was going to run for president, I would tell her that a woman couldn't win.”
Tuesday night in Des Moines was probably very interesting.   READ MORE... 

Monday, January 18, 2016

Bernie Sanders has surged in national polls in six months




The Huff Post has combined a number of national polls starting in January of 2015 through this January, showing the phenomenal growth of Bernie Sanders' campaign. As an unknown, he polled a low 4% on January 12, 2015, Hillary Clinton 60.8% and Martin O'malley .09%. Today, Sanders is 37.5%, Clinton 51.6% and O'Malley 2.7%.

Since Clinton has lost 9.2 points, O'Malley has gained only 2.6, that would indicate to me most of the 33.5 additional points Bernie Sanders has added are from formerly undecided voters. The interactive Huff Post also shows just under a twenty-percent increase for Bernie in just one month; Dec. 2015 31.4%, Jan. 2016 37.5%. In that same period Hillary lost 4.1 points. If you believe in polls, and keep in mind this is a collection of several, this is significant.

The Iowa Caucus is February 1, New Hampshire Primary following on the 9th. And then there are the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary on February 20. It has been said that, even if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and he is ahead in both, he will fade in Nevada and South Carolina and beyond. I say that is no longer true, based on the fact that his national recognition has grown by at least 20% since starting his campaign, and the last month continued to confirm that this will continue and play heavily in all future primaries.

South Carolina is already showing promise for Bernie Sanders but Nevada is uncertain at this point. More on this tomorrow.


Monday, January 4, 2016

Nate silver's 538 thinks Bernie Sanders can win Iowa caucuses



Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama 30% to 24% at this same point in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. She leads Bernie Sanders an average of 53% to 37% in this past month. Nate Silver, 538's founder and editor, thinks Bernie could catch up and capture the state, making New Hampshire a tougher win for Clinton. Where we disagree, Silver believes Clinton will still get the nomination. I certainly don't have the data that 538 does--dating back to 1980--but Bernie Sanders has a campaign momentum that might be explained by the following numbers.

It's the young vote; this group is 97 million strong and likely to surprise the pollsters starting in February through November of 2016. It did wonders for Obama in 2008, due to his stand for change, and Bernie Sanders Revolution is exciting this same collection of youth in 2015/2016. 61% of that 97M is registered to vote or over 59 million. 49% of that 59 million voted in 2012 or more than 29 million.

As an example, according to the Washington Wire, Iowa figures show that 60% of this age group supports Bernie Sanders for the February Caucuses. And in New Hampshire, where he leads Clinton now, Bernie has 55%. Nationally, he is viewed positively by 45% of age 18-34, 37% 35-49, 33% 50-64 and 35% 65+. There is a hushed underground working fervently for Bernie Sanders that most of the pollsters are ignoring; it is obvious to me daily from the correspondence I receive on the Sander's campaign.

I have been supporting and covering Bernie Sanders from the first day he entered the race and plan to be around when he is nominated in July.


Friday, December 9, 2011

Iowa attacks Romney on religion, Obama on being socialist

Outwardly, social conservatives in Iowa have labeled Mitt Romney as a “flip-flopper,” while others challenge his Mormon faith.  These people are scrambling for a candidate they can endorse that will beat Romney in the upcoming first-in-the-nation caucus on January 3, 2012.  So far it looks like Newt Gingrich is in the lead with Ron Paul following and Romney coming in third.  Perry, Bachmann, Santorum and Huntsman pretty much out of the race.  So what are they worried about?

Actually this was all happening before Gingrich’s recent surge in the polls that many wonder if it is for real or just another phase in the republican race of candidates no one really wants.  There was skepticism, however, whether or not the Iowa social conservatives could support any of the candidates.  These include groups like the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, The Family Leader, the group Iowa Right to Life, and a representative for the Iowa chapter of Concerned Women for America.

This anti-Romney movement appears to be located only in Iowa, which is known for having its religious preferences.  What is most disturbing is the fact that having the first election in 2012 on January 3 draws a lot of attention to the state, and so far all we are hearing is a religious bias toward the Mormon Church.  This sounds very similar to the critics of John F. Kennedy running for president in 1960 when they questioned whether a Catholic should be elected to the office.



There was also an official cloak of secrecy over the meeting with participants agreeing not to divulge what took place.  A Marshalltown church minister claims social conservatives are really not sure of Mitt Romney’s positions on marriage between the same sex and abortion.  Same-sex marriage in Iowa became legal on April 3, 2009.  The latest year I could find a record for abortions, 2007, there were 6,637.  Either the social conservatives are not keeping up with the facts or they are fighting a losing battle.

And then there’s the radical, in another world, Iowa Tea Party and their continued fight against President Obama.  Hey you lunatics, he won in 2008 and he’ll win again in 2012.  Ryan Rhodes, a member of the Iowa Tea Party Revolution, and from Decorah, complained to Mr. Obama that the Democrats have accused the Tea Party of being terrorists.  As far as I am concerned TPers are just simple minded people with double-digit IQs, no matter what part of the country they come from.

As the President was leaving the event, Rhodes was quoted as saying he believes Obama is a Socialist.  I am surprised this fruitcake didn’t ask him for his birth certificate.  Pathetic.

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