Showing posts with label Ari Berman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ari Berman. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

How does President Obama plan to get re-elected in November? – Part 2

In yesterday’s post we covered the Hispanic and Independent voters, the former of which most are probably in the President’s camp, the latter still uncertain but leaning left.  It is a well known fact that Independents have decided elections in the past, but, then, there hadn’t been this surge by Latinos before in both population numbers and their renewed interest to vote.  It could be formidable, and it could be Barack Obama’s blueprint for victory.

Hispanics, along with his majority share of Independents, could give the President the kind of mandate he received against John McCain in 2008.  But there is still yet one more block of voters that have hefty numbers, and which are also a deciding factor in most elections.

Always look LEFT
It is the female vote with polls repeatedly showing that women favor Obama over Romney.  But in the interim Hillary Rosen of CNN opens her mouth and Obama and the Democrats are taking a hit when it should be clearly and completely in the lap of Rosen.  She said on CNN, “that Mitt Romney shouldn't be relying on his wife for guidance on economic issues affecting women,” because she had never worked.  The Romney campaign jumped on this and the politics hit the fan.

Rosen is not officially connected to the Obama campaign and David Axelrod even said the comments were “inappropriate and offensive.” 

One campaign official said that family should be off limits but both the candidate and his wife have thrust Mrs. Romney into the arena so she will just have to learn to take the heat. {The latter, my take}  Later last week, Rosen said, “…that Republicans were attacking her as part of a strategy to divert attention from policies championed by Romney that will hurt women.”  She added, “…does Mitt Romney have a vision for bringing women up economically…?”

Tom Cohen of CNN said, “The ‘war over women’ erupted in full force Wednesday, when Romney said Obama may not have started the recession but his policies extended it, which hurt women.”  He added, “…in his {Obama’s} 3½ years, 92.3% of the people who lost jobs have been women. His failures have hurt women."  Somewhat true, but in need of clarification by federal labor statistics.

The total loss of non-farm female jobs does amount to 92.3%, but the “statistic does not reflect that men constituted a much larger chunk of the job loss pie in the year leading up to Obama's inauguration.”  Further, “In the 2008 calendar year, men lost a total of 2.7 million nonfarm jobs, compared with 895,000 lost for women. Men made up 75.4% of the 3.6 million jobs lost that year.”  Most thinking Americans agree that Barack Obama inherited a nightmare from GWB.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on NBC’s Meet the Press, “called Mitt Romney's argument that women have been disproportionately affected by the economic downturn ridiculous.’"  He added that, “…the recession and the crisis started at the beginning of 2008 before the president took office.”

On another issue, a Romney adviser balked (“We’ll get back to you on that”) when asked if the candidate would support the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Play Restoration Act that would expand workers’ rights to sue if there is a pay discrepancy between a man and a woman.  The Obama campaign countered issuing a statement from Ledbetter criticizing Romney for not standing up for women and their families.

In summary, should the President sew up the support of the Hispanics, the Independents, particularly this “swing” group, and the female vote between now and November, it is hard to see how he could lose the election.  With Mitt Romney starting in the hole on Hispanics and women, and on the fence with Independents, he has his work cut out for him.  The last two weeks of April and the month of May could very well chart the outcome of the election.

Monday, April 16, 2012

How does President Obama plan to get re-elected in November?

It won’t be easy and at this point it is far from being guaranteed.  It will certainly depend on the Hispanic vote, Independents, and women voters, although CNN’s Hillary Rosen may have muddied the water somewhat with her statements about whether Ann Romney has a real job.  More on that later.  I did a recent post on the Hispanic vote, How do you get rid of conservatives in government? The Hispanic vote,” that shows some impressive numbers.

  • President Obama is the overwhelming choice among likely Hispanic voters.  Head to head, the best any of the GOP candidates could do is get 14 percent of their vote.
  • This is a nationwide trend resulting in a rejection of the Republican candidates the more they learn about them.
  • 80 percent of the Hispanics voting for Obama in 2008 would vote for him again in November.

Further, today there are five top states where Hispanics represent a sizeable portion of the eligible voting population and they are New Mexico, 42.5%, Texas, 33.7%, California, 27.1%, Arizona, 21.3%, Florida, 19.2%,  There are a number of eligible voters in New Mexico through Florida who are not registered, as follows: 202,650, 2,154,600, 2,026,500, 405,300 and 638,400, respectively.  That’s 5,427,450 potential voters for the progressive side…in just 5 states.

Next, Independents, that voting block that most likely decides the election; of course, Latinos could give Obama a landslide.  According to their website, “
Third Way
is a think tank that answers America’s challenges with modern ideas aimed at the center.”  They say that Swing Independents make up 15 percent of the vote and currently favor the President by 44 percent to 38 percent over Mitt Romney. However, they claim Obama’s “populist” message is turning them off.

Third way claims, “Swing Independents care about ‘opportunity,’ not fairness, prioritize cutting the deficit over reducing income inequality, don't believe the US economy is skewed to favor the wealthy and consider themselves to be haves, not part of the have nots."  That flies in the face of the fact that “prominent Republicans are admitting that Obama's focus on income in-equality has put the GOP on the defensive,” according to National Public Radio.

Ari Berman, the author of “Herding Donkeys: The Fight to Rebuild the Democratic Party and Reshape American Politics,” says in his NPR article that
Third Way
wants the president and Democratic candidates to drop the populism issue. Berman says, “That would be political suicide, not to mention terrible public policy.”  He also disagrees with
Third Way
that they are the Soccer Moms of 2012 and paints them simply as “fickle souls who can't make up their minds.”

In refuting
Third Way
’s stand on the issues, he quoted a new ABC News/Washington Post poll asking voters: "what do you think is the bigger problem in this country — unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy, or over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity?"  The answers were conclusive:

“Fifty-two percent answered ‘unfairness,’ while only ‘37 percent’ mentioned ‘over-regulation.’ A December 2011 Pew poll found that 61 percent of Americans believe the US economic system ‘favors the wealthy,’ with 36 percent saying it was ‘generally fair.’ In a November 2011 ABC News/Washington Post poll, 61 percent of the public said the federal government should "pursue policies that try to reduce the gap between wealthy and less-well-off Americans," with 35 percent saying it should not.”

Who could possibly argue with the concept that financial equality is one of the most important factors for survival, except the wealthy of course?

Part 2 and the women’s vote tomorrow.

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