Showing posts with label So. Carolina Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label So. Carolina Primary. Show all posts

Monday, February 29, 2016

Bernie Sanders really needs your support now because there's hope




Bernie Sanders took a hit in South Carolina with Hillary Clinton gleaning just over 73% of the vote to Bernie's 26%. But with significant qualification. 61 percent of voters in So, Carolina's primary identified as black, with only about 35 percent saying they were white; Almost 47% of So.Carolina's white population is older, a group which identifies with Clinton. And although Bernie captured the younger vote, even with blacks, the numbers just weren't there.

No excuses...we had all hoped and somewhat expected better for Sanders but it just didn't happen. So where do we go from here? Naysayers like Nate Silver's 538 are saying that So. Carolina is the beginning of the end for the Bern but he's never given him a chance from the beginning and look where the candidate has come from there. The delegate momentum in heavily on Hillary's side 544 to 85, most of which are super delegates.

If you count just pledged delegates, It's Sanders 65, Clinton 91, a reasonable margin considering the odds against Bernie. But let me explain the agenda behind super delegates that could be trouble for the Bern in the long haul. They can support whomever they want to and it is expected a number of them will simply follow party lines. Unless some of them switch their support before the convention, and they can because the commitment is not binding.

So it is yet again too early for the naysayers, as it has been now several times. In the last RealClearPolitics combined national polls for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, it was Bernie 42.2%, Hillary 47.2%, a gap of only 5%. And this included the Fox conservative poll. The Bern has shocked the media enough times already that they should have learned by now. But like the Fiddler on the Roof, it's "tradition." Tomorrow, what's ahead.

Friday, February 26, 2016

African-Americans should think twice before voting for Hillary Clinton


Rosa Parks famous bus ride
In The Nation, Michelle Alexander, an African American journalist, writes: "The Clinton's legacy has been the impoverishment of black America--so why are we still voting for them?" The article comes at a time when Hillary is using black Americans as her "firewall" again opponent Bernie Sanders, who also is proud of his civil rights background. And the South Carolina Primary February 27, will be the first battleground to test the mettle of both candidates before blacks.

"What have the Clintons done to earn such devotion?, Alexander asks. Her answer...Not take extreme political risks defending blacks, not fight right-wing demagoguery about the black communities, not give black communities the hope they needed after industrialization devastation of their neighborhoods. In fact, the writer claims, they did just the opposite. It is true Clinton should not be held accountable for what her husband's administration did. Or should she be?

Hillary Clinton supported Bill Clinton's 1994 crime bill using, "...racially coded rhetoric to cast black children as animals. 'They are not just gangs of kids anymore,' she said. 'They are often the kinds of kids that are called ‘super-predators.’ No conscience, no empathy. We can talk about why they ended up that way, but first we have to bring them to heel.'” This kind of discourse is a far cry from what she is saying in South Carolina today.

And while on the recent campaign trail, "...she continues to invoke the economy and country that Bill Clinton left behind as a legacy she would continue."

Alexander goes on, "When Clinton left office in 2001, the true jobless rate for young, non-college-educated black men (including those behind bars) was 42 percent. This figure was never reported. Instead, the media claimed that unemployment rates for African Americans had fallen to record lows, neglecting to mention that this miracle was possible only because incarceration rates were now at record highs." Likely because of the 1994 crime bill Hillary supported.

More on this tomorrow, including Bernie Sanders record on civil rights.



Sunday, February 14, 2016

Sanders blankets So. Carolina-Clinton comes up short




As recently as yesterday, Bernie Sanders had 240 workers on the ground in South Carolina--80% African-American--with 10 offices established. Hillary Clinton only 2 campaign offices, a sparse 14 workers. Sounds like someone is pretty sure of themselves, when the Bern is known to turn the tide overnight. She is ahead in the polls but there is a week to go before Feb. 27, and the fact that the voting day is Saturday will allow more people to get to the polls.

NPR says there is a hitch in Clinton's support, "young, black college-aged voters are turning lukewarm on Clinton." In another instance, "young black voters in South Carolina who spoke with NPR say when they look into Clinton's record, they don't like all they've seen." Many were impressed by Bernie Sanders' consistency, which is one of the great strengths that has carried him this far and a large reason for his regular surges in the polls.

South Carolina is 28% Black, 5% Hispanic. The 18 to 44 age group in the state is 36% of the population, numbering some 1,669,793. The Bern has a pretty good hold on this group, and when you apply the 36% to the African-American/Hispanic population, there is another 549,492 possible supporters. It's obviously conjecture, but if the numbers keep falling into place for Bernie and additional profiles of voters are added, South Carolina begins to look pretty good. 

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Sanders cuts Clinton So. Carolina lead 17% in 30 days




Hillary Clinton is leading Bernie Sanders 47% to 28% but Bernie's surge is significant in that Clinton led 67% to 31% last December 17, which totaled 36 points at the time. Phil Noble, President of the So. Carolina New Democrats says the Clinton lead still worthy but Sanders is "closing fast." The Democratic SC Primary is February 27. Here are some more figures from Phil Noble:
Among key subgroups, the results of the poll were as follows:
African Americans voters are expected to make up 60% of the primary electorate: Clinton 54%, Sanders 18% and O'Malley 2%.
White voters are expected to make up 40% of the primary electorate: Clinton 39%, Sanders 44%, and O'Malley 2%.
Men voters are expected to make up 40% of the primary electorate: Clinton 37%, Sanders 44% and O'Malley 3%.Women voters are expected to make up 60% of the primary electorate: Clinton 48%, Sanders 32% and O'Malley 2%.
"We believe this poll gives a good snapshot of the state of the race in South Carolina today," said John Thevos, Research Director of SC New Democrats who managed the survey. "Most of all, it shows that things can change very quickly in the Palmetto State and the primary on February 27 could well surprise lots of folks."
A couple of months ago So. Carolina was all gloom and doom for Bernie Sanders since it was assumed that Hillary Clinton had locked up the African American vote. Now it is obvious that the state as a whole is rethinking its loyalties. It is simply a matter of recognition of the candidate and his issues and it is obvious that once folks learn what the Bern is all about they begin to feel it.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Bernie Sanders has surged in national polls in six months




The Huff Post has combined a number of national polls starting in January of 2015 through this January, showing the phenomenal growth of Bernie Sanders' campaign. As an unknown, he polled a low 4% on January 12, 2015, Hillary Clinton 60.8% and Martin O'malley .09%. Today, Sanders is 37.5%, Clinton 51.6% and O'Malley 2.7%.

Since Clinton has lost 9.2 points, O'Malley has gained only 2.6, that would indicate to me most of the 33.5 additional points Bernie Sanders has added are from formerly undecided voters. The interactive Huff Post also shows just under a twenty-percent increase for Bernie in just one month; Dec. 2015 31.4%, Jan. 2016 37.5%. In that same period Hillary lost 4.1 points. If you believe in polls, and keep in mind this is a collection of several, this is significant.

The Iowa Caucus is February 1, New Hampshire Primary following on the 9th. And then there are the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary on February 20. It has been said that, even if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and he is ahead in both, he will fade in Nevada and South Carolina and beyond. I say that is no longer true, based on the fact that his national recognition has grown by at least 20% since starting his campaign, and the last month continued to confirm that this will continue and play heavily in all future primaries.

South Carolina is already showing promise for Bernie Sanders but Nevada is uncertain at this point. More on this tomorrow.


Monday, January 23, 2012

Where were the evangelicals in So. Carolina when Santorum needed them?

Who knows?
Former senator Rick Santorum of Penn. finally won the Iowa caucuses over Mitt Romney with 34 votes when the folks in Iowa did their final count.  Sounds reasonable to me considering the high evangelical population in the state but also appears much too close when you consider Romney is a Mormon.  Like JFK’s Catholicism in the November 1960 election for President, Romney’s Mormonism has been a barrier for the religious right from the beginning.

Apparently there were missing votes in eight Iowa precincts that for some reason or other were never received and counted, blamed on the “state’s old-fashioned primary process.”  The missing votes were spread across five Iowa counties and in 2008 that area accounted for a total of 298 votes.  In one such precinct GOP chair, Karen Zander, said about the volunteers, “They had no training.  They didn’t know what they were doing.”

Pretty pathetic for an election that screams to the rest of the country each year that they are the first, and one of the most important votes in the primaries leading up to the primary nomination.  I have never understood the importance of these caucuses, and maybe the rest of the country and future presidential candidates will come to agree after this year.  But Romney’s close second does speak well of evangelical voters in that they were apparently able to put religion aside and vote with reason.



Did the same situation occur in South Carolina?  In the 2008 Republican primary there, 60 percent of the Republican voters defined themselves as “born-again-Christians,” compared with a national average of 44 percent.  Another 69 percent said that the candidate’s religious beliefs mattered in their vote.  In 2012 B-A-Cs jumped to 65 percent.  Also in 2012, religious beliefs of the candidates differed in that 59 percent said they mattered a great deal or somewhat, followed by 19 percent who said not much, 21 percent not at all.

In 2012, 97 percent were worried about the economy in South Carolina; 63 percent thought it was the most important issue compared to 8 percent for abortion.  However, 64 percent did think abortion should be illegal.  Winner Newt Gingrich was helped by the fact that 64 percent of So. Carolinians support the Tea Party and he was apparently able to garner their vote according to exit polls.  But it still isn’t clear if Gingrich can win TPers in less conservative states.

You can see the entire So. Carolina CNN Election Poll results here.

This is all somewhat perplexing since a meeting of the Christian conservative leaders in January of this year in Texas voted to back Rick Santorum, reported Family Research Council president Tony Perkins.  Some of those involved were Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, Perkins, National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference president Rev. Samuel Rodriguez and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer.  Members of the media were not allowed at the meeting. 

Newt Gingrich
Although the Christian conservative majority vote was for Santorum, individuals voted for other candidates, such as American Family Assn. founder Don Wildmon who voted for Gingrich.  For those of you who haven’t heard, Gingrich took So. Carolina with 41 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 27 percent and Santorum trailing with 17 percent.  The winner of the So. Carolina primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination in each election since 1980.

The big question is, if Newt Gingrich wins the Republican nomination, will he be a more formidable candidate against President Barack Obama than Mitt Romney?  He is an excellent debater, but so is Obama.  Gingrich has personal life baggage with his ex-wife that doesn’t play well with religious conservatives where the President is squeaky-clean.  Both men are highly intelligent and there is no doubt in the separation of ideologies.

Like they have been saying for over a year now, 2012 is going to be one hell of an election!

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