Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts

Thursday, January 30, 2020


Looks like millennials could put Bernie Sanders over the top


There are 71 million millennials in the United States ages 24 to 39. 26 millennials voted in 2018. Bernie Sanders is ahead in the Iowa Caucuses and he leads in the New Hampshire Primary. So what does this say for the Bern...
"Democrats will need high turnout among young, left-leaning voters in November, and Bernie Sanders is overwhelmingly popular with such voters."
Joe Biden has been the front-runner on the left since he entered the race, with other candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg running up and down the rankings. Sanders has continually hovered around second position throughout the Primary competition, but lately has been surging...
"According to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday, Bernie Sanders boasts the support of 53 percent of Democratic voters under 35 nationwide, while Joe Biden lays claim to just 3 percent. That poll’s margin of error is 3.4 percentage points — which means that the percentage of younger voters who support the Democratic Party’s current front-runner could, technically, round down to zero."
The fact of the matter is that Joe Biden just does not appeal to the younger generation even though he is younger than Bernie by two years. The Intelligencer reports...
"Although Sanders’s 2016 backers did not sit out (or defect) during the general election in aberrantly high numbers, the age gap between Biden and Bernie backers this year is even larger than the one that prevailed between Clinton and the Vermont senator four years ago."
And then you have Michael Bloomberg entering the race who seems to be syphoning off support from all the candidates but Bernie Sanders. As I have said earlier, I am not sure Bloomberg is running to win or just to make sure Donald Trump doesn't win. The next couple of months will certainly be interesting.
READ MORE...

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Iowa 29-year Republican dumps Donald Trump


I lived in Des Moines and while I wouldn't recommend it as a residence, I do know the people of the state of Iowa have the ability to think through things and arrive at a logical conclusion. That's why presidential candidates make it number one on their list to visit before an election, and why we pay so much attention to the Iowa caucuses scheduled for February 3, 2020. Having said all this, I can admire one of the longest-serving Republican state lawmakers for switching parties to the Democrats. Granted, it's at the state level but considering the 29 years tenure, it is definitely significant.

State Rep. Andy McKean is a moderate from eastern Iowa and announced his switch by calling Trump...
"a poor example for the nation and particularly for our children." He'll seek re-election in 2020 as a Democrat.
McKean continued...
"He sets, in my opinion, a poor example for the nation and particularly for our children by personally insulting -- often in a crude and juvenile fashion -- those who disagree with him, being a bully at a time when we are attempting to discourage bullying, his frequent disregard for the truth and his willingness to ridicule or marginalize people for their appearance, ethnicity or disability."
That statement pretty much sums up Donald Trump and emphasizes the rancor in the ranks of the Republican Party that apparently is seething across the country...that is when they are willing to admit it. The question is what effect this might have on the Iowa caucuses since they are the first indication in the country of how the presidential election might go, just nine months away. But what we really want to know is could this sink Trump in Iowa? This is how McKean describes the dilemma...
"I believe that it is just a matter of time before our party pays a heavy price for President Trump's reckless spending and shortsighted financial policies, his erratic, destabilizing foreign policy and his disregard for environmental concerns."
"If this is the new normal, I want no part of it."
The nation as a whole wants no part of a lunatic that has brought the United States to its lowest point in years, and one can only hope that Andy McKean's move will only be one of many similar acts.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Bernie Sanders wins no matter the results


Sanders speaking at Iowa Caucus
By the time you read this today we will know who the winner is in the Iowa Caucuses, But Bernie Sanders has already won with his leap from a single-digit figure when he started the race, to 49.6% in the Iowa caucus, the last I checked last night. Hillary Clinton at 49.8%. Based on the outstanding votes to be counted in Polk and Linn Counties, both heavily liberal, I'm going to bed feeling that the Bern has done it.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Bernie sanders looking good in Iowa




In the latest Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points, 49% to 45%. By demographics Bernie trounces her with men, trails slightly with women, way ahead on the age group 18-24, trails slightly on 45 to 64 year-olds and is way behind in the 65+ age group. An earlier Quinnipiac survey this month...
Clinton and Sanders are not far apart among women. Sanders has a net favorability of plus-81 with women; Clinton's is +69. Among men? Sanders is +88 and Clinton is +29 — a massive gap.
Should Bernie bring more women over to his side, he would have two major groups along with the young. Not sure he'll ever get the older folks 65+ and I believe it has something to do with Sanders Democratic Socialism; they remember Joe McCarthy and his fight against Communism and just seem to mistakenly put the two together. Another factor is that Sanders's support is far heavier among the third of poll respondents who've never been to a caucus before.

But The Washington Post cautions there are red flags. One, in 2008 fewer men voted and traditionally young people don't vote. I say, with the enthusiasm Bernie is getting from men in Iowa, and the fireworks this Presidential election has created, they will go to the caucuses on Feb. 1. And that goes double for the younger vote.

Oh, by the way, The Huff Post combination of several national polls had Bernie Sanders at 35.8% against Hillary Clinton's 51.0% as of January 24. Bernie's up from 33.3% and Hillary's down from 54.8% since January 1. Pretty significant for less than a full month.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

The assault has started on Bernie Sanders




First Hillary says Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama from 2008 because Sanders can't galvanize the African-American vote and he will not dominate caucus contests. To begin with, he is leading in the Iowa caucus and in one recent month his ranking in So. Carolina jumped 17%, the latter heavily populated by African-Americans. So the battle begins between two fully qualified opponents with only one with the right mandate.

And then there's the Democratic establishment, "As he faces the toughest onslaught of his political life over the next 11 days before the Iowa caucuses, Sanders will have to go it nearly alone," says Alex Seitz Wald on MSNBC.  So far he hasn't needed this group of die-hard party hardliners. Bernie Sanders' supporters are not the kind who listen to the establishment so this palaver will fall on deaf ears. And wherever they are coming from, new ones are added daily.

More on this tomorrow.


Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Sanders takes lead in Iowa and thunders to new high in New Hampshire


A new Quinnipiac University poll out today places Bernie Sanders with 49% of likely Iowa Democratic Caucus voters with Clinton at 44%, a five point lead. Just recently Clinton led Sanders by three points.  The men are 61 to 30 percent for Bernie, the women 55 to 39 percent for Hillary. And Sanders favorability with this same group is 87-3 compared to Clinton's 74-21. Hillary Clinton does lead Bernie Sanders when it comes to who would win in the general election, 85% to 68%.

In the New Hampshire Primary, Bernie has taken a significant lead of 14-points over Hillary, 53% to 39% in todays Monmouth University poll. With 52% of New Hampshire primary voters completely decided on who they will support, in addition to the 53% currently supporting Sanders, "... another 20% of primary voters say they could end up voting for him on February 9th instead of their current choice.

For the General Election in November, Bernie Sanders against the GOP leading candidate, Donald Trump, 51 percent to 38 percent, but Hillary Clinton only 44 to 47 percent, both Quinnipiac polls.

Now, onward to South Carolina.

Monday, April 27, 2015

CAN IOWA CAUCUS BE RELEVANT AFTER JONI ERNST?


For years the Iowa Caucuses were received as the first real test of a presidential candidate. Until Joni Ernst. Since she was elected to the Senate in that state, I am not sure how this will affect the normal opinions of those who follow this political event. But it is for sure that at least some of its credibility is shot to hell. If the same people who elected Ernst are the ones who vote in the caucuses--and that must be the case--the results of their ballots have to be considered as looney as their support for the latest Tea Party fruitcake. Iowans are usually level headed with a lot of
common sense and that is the reason presidential candidates seek their backing. But the whole process seems to have derailed when the Tea Party moved in and slipped this radical lunatic through the cracks. It is my guess that she won due to a low voter turnout when the triple-digit IQs stayed home. It goes without saying that too much of this is happening in this country and I just hope it is not too late when the American public realizes it.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Where were the evangelicals in So. Carolina when Santorum needed them?

Who knows?
Former senator Rick Santorum of Penn. finally won the Iowa caucuses over Mitt Romney with 34 votes when the folks in Iowa did their final count.  Sounds reasonable to me considering the high evangelical population in the state but also appears much too close when you consider Romney is a Mormon.  Like JFK’s Catholicism in the November 1960 election for President, Romney’s Mormonism has been a barrier for the religious right from the beginning.

Apparently there were missing votes in eight Iowa precincts that for some reason or other were never received and counted, blamed on the “state’s old-fashioned primary process.”  The missing votes were spread across five Iowa counties and in 2008 that area accounted for a total of 298 votes.  In one such precinct GOP chair, Karen Zander, said about the volunteers, “They had no training.  They didn’t know what they were doing.”

Pretty pathetic for an election that screams to the rest of the country each year that they are the first, and one of the most important votes in the primaries leading up to the primary nomination.  I have never understood the importance of these caucuses, and maybe the rest of the country and future presidential candidates will come to agree after this year.  But Romney’s close second does speak well of evangelical voters in that they were apparently able to put religion aside and vote with reason.



Did the same situation occur in South Carolina?  In the 2008 Republican primary there, 60 percent of the Republican voters defined themselves as “born-again-Christians,” compared with a national average of 44 percent.  Another 69 percent said that the candidate’s religious beliefs mattered in their vote.  In 2012 B-A-Cs jumped to 65 percent.  Also in 2012, religious beliefs of the candidates differed in that 59 percent said they mattered a great deal or somewhat, followed by 19 percent who said not much, 21 percent not at all.

In 2012, 97 percent were worried about the economy in South Carolina; 63 percent thought it was the most important issue compared to 8 percent for abortion.  However, 64 percent did think abortion should be illegal.  Winner Newt Gingrich was helped by the fact that 64 percent of So. Carolinians support the Tea Party and he was apparently able to garner their vote according to exit polls.  But it still isn’t clear if Gingrich can win TPers in less conservative states.

You can see the entire So. Carolina CNN Election Poll results here.

This is all somewhat perplexing since a meeting of the Christian conservative leaders in January of this year in Texas voted to back Rick Santorum, reported Family Research Council president Tony Perkins.  Some of those involved were Focus on the Family founder James Dobson, Perkins, National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference president Rev. Samuel Rodriguez and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer.  Members of the media were not allowed at the meeting. 

Newt Gingrich
Although the Christian conservative majority vote was for Santorum, individuals voted for other candidates, such as American Family Assn. founder Don Wildmon who voted for Gingrich.  For those of you who haven’t heard, Gingrich took So. Carolina with 41 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 27 percent and Santorum trailing with 17 percent.  The winner of the So. Carolina primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination in each election since 1980.

The big question is, if Newt Gingrich wins the Republican nomination, will he be a more formidable candidate against President Barack Obama than Mitt Romney?  He is an excellent debater, but so is Obama.  Gingrich has personal life baggage with his ex-wife that doesn’t play well with religious conservatives where the President is squeaky-clean.  Both men are highly intelligent and there is no doubt in the separation of ideologies.

Like they have been saying for over a year now, 2012 is going to be one hell of an election!

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