Showing posts with label New Hampshire primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Hampshire primary. Show all posts

Thursday, January 30, 2020


Looks like millennials could put Bernie Sanders over the top


There are 71 million millennials in the United States ages 24 to 39. 26 millennials voted in 2018. Bernie Sanders is ahead in the Iowa Caucuses and he leads in the New Hampshire Primary. So what does this say for the Bern...
"Democrats will need high turnout among young, left-leaning voters in November, and Bernie Sanders is overwhelmingly popular with such voters."
Joe Biden has been the front-runner on the left since he entered the race, with other candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg running up and down the rankings. Sanders has continually hovered around second position throughout the Primary competition, but lately has been surging...
"According to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday, Bernie Sanders boasts the support of 53 percent of Democratic voters under 35 nationwide, while Joe Biden lays claim to just 3 percent. That poll’s margin of error is 3.4 percentage points — which means that the percentage of younger voters who support the Democratic Party’s current front-runner could, technically, round down to zero."
The fact of the matter is that Joe Biden just does not appeal to the younger generation even though he is younger than Bernie by two years. The Intelligencer reports...
"Although Sanders’s 2016 backers did not sit out (or defect) during the general election in aberrantly high numbers, the age gap between Biden and Bernie backers this year is even larger than the one that prevailed between Clinton and the Vermont senator four years ago."
And then you have Michael Bloomberg entering the race who seems to be syphoning off support from all the candidates but Bernie Sanders. As I have said earlier, I am not sure Bloomberg is running to win or just to make sure Donald Trump doesn't win. The next couple of months will certainly be interesting.
READ MORE...

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Bernie Sanders support larger than thought before New Hampshire




The New Hampshire Primary opened a lot of eyes as well as new sources of support the Sanders campaign didn't know of or at least weren't sure of. Now they know. Okay, I realize the first primary state doesn't reflect the demographics of some of the rest of the country but it was considered a Clinton stronghold dating back to the 2008 election where Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama.

"Sanders bested Clinton across virtually all regional and demographic boundaries in the Granite State, crushing her overall by 22 points."

As an example, in the under $50,000 income, "Sanders defeated Clinton by 33 points." She won it over Obama by 15 points in 2008. Sanders went on to a 36 point lead among voters without college degrees, and winning college-educated by 13 points. Bernie also improved his older voter appeal by beating Clinton 13 points in Berlin and a sixteen-point margin in Rochester, both older age communities.

Again, a state not representative of the rest of he country but a true test of Clinton's vulnerability.




Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Bernie Sanders takes New Hampshire handily


Early New Hampshire results
The last I heard last night the vote count was 60% for Bernie Sanders, 39% for Hillary Clinton. If it weren't for Clinton's super delegates, Bernie would have a huge lead in this area. Here's the way it stacked up overall:
Sanders won 83 percent of millennial voters under the age of 30-
Sanders won 66 percent of voters who describe themselves as very liberal-
Sanders 72 percent of self-described independents-
Sanders won huge with voters who were looking for a candidate they saw as honest and trustworthy (91 percent)-
Voters said Sanders cares about people like them (82 percent)-
But what is even more significant is that Bernie Sanders won the women's vote, 53% to Clinton's 46%. This, apparently, Hillary did not expect.

Next victories Nevada Feb. 20, then South Carolina Feb. 27 

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

If Hillary Clinton's Hispanic support slips...then what?




MSNBC reports that Latinos may be softening on their support for Hillary Clinton. One immigrant activist, Marisa Franco, said, “I think she really personifies that candidate whose talking points are dictated by polls and not by taking a firm position on your values.”

In the caucus following the New Hampshire primary, Nevada, leaders of the most powerful union in the state decided they would not endorse any candidate; the union "...a collective of bartenders, housemaids and cooks, is a massive political machine with more than half its membership of Hispanic origin."

With Martin O'Malley out of the race, the Latino support will now be split between Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In Nevada the Hispanic population is 26.5%, but in New Hampshire it is only 2.8%. Bernie leads Hillary 57% to 34% in New Hampshire, Clinton holding an almost 20-point lead in Nevada.

David Gergen made an interesting statement on the CNN Monday night coverage of the Iowa caucuses. He indicated that Hillary Clinton might take many of the southern states but he felt it was possible that Bernie Sanders could take California, The Latino population there is 37.6% but Sanders main group, the millennials, is 77.6%. That would be a huge victory. 

Monday, January 18, 2016

Bernie Sanders has surged in national polls in six months




The Huff Post has combined a number of national polls starting in January of 2015 through this January, showing the phenomenal growth of Bernie Sanders' campaign. As an unknown, he polled a low 4% on January 12, 2015, Hillary Clinton 60.8% and Martin O'malley .09%. Today, Sanders is 37.5%, Clinton 51.6% and O'Malley 2.7%.

Since Clinton has lost 9.2 points, O'Malley has gained only 2.6, that would indicate to me most of the 33.5 additional points Bernie Sanders has added are from formerly undecided voters. The interactive Huff Post also shows just under a twenty-percent increase for Bernie in just one month; Dec. 2015 31.4%, Jan. 2016 37.5%. In that same period Hillary lost 4.1 points. If you believe in polls, and keep in mind this is a collection of several, this is significant.

The Iowa Caucus is February 1, New Hampshire Primary following on the 9th. And then there are the Nevada Caucus and South Carolina Primary on February 20. It has been said that, even if Bernie Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and he is ahead in both, he will fade in Nevada and South Carolina and beyond. I say that is no longer true, based on the fact that his national recognition has grown by at least 20% since starting his campaign, and the last month continued to confirm that this will continue and play heavily in all future primaries.

South Carolina is already showing promise for Bernie Sanders but Nevada is uncertain at this point. More on this tomorrow.


Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Sanders takes lead in Iowa and thunders to new high in New Hampshire


A new Quinnipiac University poll out today places Bernie Sanders with 49% of likely Iowa Democratic Caucus voters with Clinton at 44%, a five point lead. Just recently Clinton led Sanders by three points.  The men are 61 to 30 percent for Bernie, the women 55 to 39 percent for Hillary. And Sanders favorability with this same group is 87-3 compared to Clinton's 74-21. Hillary Clinton does lead Bernie Sanders when it comes to who would win in the general election, 85% to 68%.

In the New Hampshire Primary, Bernie has taken a significant lead of 14-points over Hillary, 53% to 39% in todays Monmouth University poll. With 52% of New Hampshire primary voters completely decided on who they will support, in addition to the 53% currently supporting Sanders, "... another 20% of primary voters say they could end up voting for him on February 9th instead of their current choice.

For the General Election in November, Bernie Sanders against the GOP leading candidate, Donald Trump, 51 percent to 38 percent, but Hillary Clinton only 44 to 47 percent, both Quinnipiac polls.

Now, onward to South Carolina.

Friday, January 13, 2012

New Hampshire GOP Primary 2012 compared to 2008…Obama’s opposition

Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich said that if Mitt Romney didn’t get a 50 percent win in New Hampshire, it wouldn’t be a mandate for his nomination.  In 2008 in NH, John McCain received only 37.71 percent of the vote and went on to win.  Mike Huckabee came in third with 11.44 percent.  This week Romney came in with almost 40 percent of the NH vote compared to 32.17 in 2008.  The Iowa Caucus took place on the same date, Jan. 3rd, both years.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire by 39.09 percent in 2008, beating Barack Obama’s 36.45 percent, but Obama went on to win the nomination.  John Edwards came in third at 16.94 percent.  There will obviously be no Democratic primary in 2012 but what this says is that New Hampshire isn’t always a clincher.  When Obama became the Democratic presumptive nominee on June 3, 2008, New Hampshire then cast all its 30 votes for him, one of only three states to do so.



For years now the New Hampshire Primary and the Iowa Caucus have received more media attention than all the other primaries combined.  This publicity and resulting momentum by a decisive frontrunner can have great impact on the future of his or her candidacy.  According to one report, a win in New Hampshire can increase that candidate’s share of the resulting primary count by 27 percent.

Former NH Gov. John Sununu said that people in Iowa pick corn, people in New Hampshire pick presidents, referring to the race to be the first primary.  From the late 1980s the NH primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitudes toward candidates.  One of the major reasons the state is a good representation of political sentiment across the U.S. is that Independents are allowed to vote in the primary, although with some manipulations at the time of voting.

What isn’t representative in New Hampshire, and which will be a significant factor in 2012, is that the state is only 4 percent Hispanic compared to 25 percent nationwide.  If Latinos get themselves organized and continue their efforts to register qualified voters, this block could be awesome and throw the NH Primary results into a quandary.  In other words, it’s all up in the air and nothing is really certain until the fat lady sings in November.

Forty percent of voters in New Hampshire are Independent which is in keeping with their representation nationally and this is a major reason it is considered a swing state in national elections.  But as far as predictions go, Bill Clinton, Geo. W. Bush and Barack Obama came in second in the NH Primary and all went on to become President.  So go figure for November.

But does this mean that Ron Paul, who came in second this year in New Hampshire with 23 percent, has a chance at the presidency?  I think not, and this just confirms what a crazy year for politics this has been so far, and will continue to be until the November elections.  I think it is also a solid sign that voters will both register and come out in droves in November, emerging from an apathetic population that has decided it isn’t going to take it anymore. 

Of course the outcome will be heavily favored toward progressives.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Iowa caucus is a group of religious extremists' much ado about nothing

I lived in Iowa at one time; still have family there that will no doubt roast me alive after this post.  But I am sick and tired of seeing religion, not just making its impact on politics like any other politicking body, but in actual control of the outcome.  And that is exactly the position the Iowa evangelicals are in when it comes to caucus results.  They are able to do it because of their numbers in the state and also because of their unlimited passion over what they believe.

University of Akron’s expert on religion and politics, John Green, says, ““Relatively few people participate in the Iowa caucuses, so it’s ideal for a group of highly committed activists to have a big influence.”  The need to attend area get-togethers is a requirement, and since evangelicals thrive on sharing their devotion, it is easy for the churches to initiate this kind of participation.  And there is nothing wrong with this loyalty to their cause.

 

What is wrong is the influence the Iowa Caucus has on voters’ opinions across the country of the candidates and their qualifications to be president.  What would the evangelicals do if someday this country elected an agnostic to the highest office in the land?  He or she would believe in a God, but not share the normal Christian beliefs such as the crucifixion.  This new president would have all the capabilities to perform the necessary duties, and he or she would possess all the real values of good people.  The latter is possible, you know.

 A U. of Iowa journalism professor, Stephen G. Bloom, a New Jersey transplant, has wreaked havoc in the state with his statement: "Whether a schizophrenic, economically depressed, and some say, culturally challenged state like Iowa should host the first grassroots referendum to determine who will be the next president isn't at issue. ... In a perfect world, no way would Iowa ever be considered representative of America, or even a small part of it. Iowa's not representative of much." 

When I lived in Des Moines in the late 60s, it was a dingy place, very cliquish, and when I left, knew I would never want to live there again.  Apparently a lot of people still feel the same way as Forbes magazine ranked Iowa in the top ten states losing population in 2010.  That doesn’t mean those who stay are bad, just that it is an environment in which they feel comfortable.  Perhaps many who desert the state are just not “evangelical” enough to fit in and decide to go elsewhere.

To illustrate what I feel to be the complete absurdity of the Iowa Caucus, evangelist Pat Robertson in 1988 finished second, ahead of then-Vice President George H.W. Bush.  Now I am far from being a Bush fan but finishing behind Pat Robertson, come on!  It’s like having the big “E” before his name qualifies Robertson to be president of the United States and that is ridiculous.  But this seems to be the only criteria of the current caucusers. 


Iowa caucus GOP
 As another example, former Penn. Senator Rick Santorum’s latest surge in the polls might be explained by the fact he landed on Time’s list of America’s 25 most influential evangelicals; he is also a devout Catholic.  But as the vote becomes even more fractured, Iowa’s evangelicals have become worried that it will lessen the importance of the caucuses nationwide and have yet another trick up their sleeve. 

They are attempting to get either Santorum or Michele Bachmann or Rick Perry to drop out so as not to dilute the vote for the chosen evangelicals.

At least we have a real election to look forward to in New Hampshire a week after the Iowa fiasco.  With any luck in 2012 we’ll sweep Congress clean of conservative extremists like the lunatics of the Tea Party, and the religious right that puts faith before country, and bring in some progressives that will again concentrate on what is good for America.  Hell, we might even elect an agnostic after President Obama’s second term.

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