Thursday, January 28, 2016

Bernie sanders looking good in Iowa

In the latest Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points, 49% to 45%. By demographics Bernie trounces her with men, trails slightly with women, way ahead on the age group 18-24, trails slightly on 45 to 64 year-olds and is way behind in the 65+ age group. An earlier Quinnipiac survey this month...
Clinton and Sanders are not far apart among women. Sanders has a net favorability of plus-81 with women; Clinton's is +69. Among men? Sanders is +88 and Clinton is +29 — a massive gap.
Should Bernie bring more women over to his side, he would have two major groups along with the young. Not sure he'll ever get the older folks 65+ and I believe it has something to do with Sanders Democratic Socialism; they remember Joe McCarthy and his fight against Communism and just seem to mistakenly put the two together. Another factor is that Sanders's support is far heavier among the third of poll respondents who've never been to a caucus before.

But The Washington Post cautions there are red flags. One, in 2008 fewer men voted and traditionally young people don't vote. I say, with the enthusiasm Bernie is getting from men in Iowa, and the fireworks this Presidential election has created, they will go to the caucuses on Feb. 1. And that goes double for the younger vote.

Oh, by the way, The Huff Post combination of several national polls had Bernie Sanders at 35.8% against Hillary Clinton's 51.0% as of January 24. Bernie's up from 33.3% and Hillary's down from 54.8% since January 1. Pretty significant for less than a full month.

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