Monday, April 16, 2012

How does President Obama plan to get re-elected in November?

It won’t be easy and at this point it is far from being guaranteed.  It will certainly depend on the Hispanic vote, Independents, and women voters, although CNN’s Hillary Rosen may have muddied the water somewhat with her statements about whether Ann Romney has a real job.  More on that later.  I did a recent post on the Hispanic vote, How do you get rid of conservatives in government? The Hispanic vote,” that shows some impressive numbers.

  • President Obama is the overwhelming choice among likely Hispanic voters.  Head to head, the best any of the GOP candidates could do is get 14 percent of their vote.
  • This is a nationwide trend resulting in a rejection of the Republican candidates the more they learn about them.
  • 80 percent of the Hispanics voting for Obama in 2008 would vote for him again in November.

Further, today there are five top states where Hispanics represent a sizeable portion of the eligible voting population and they are New Mexico, 42.5%, Texas, 33.7%, California, 27.1%, Arizona, 21.3%, Florida, 19.2%,  There are a number of eligible voters in New Mexico through Florida who are not registered, as follows: 202,650, 2,154,600, 2,026,500, 405,300 and 638,400, respectively.  That’s 5,427,450 potential voters for the progressive side…in just 5 states.

Next, Independents, that voting block that most likely decides the election; of course, Latinos could give Obama a landslide.  According to their website, “
Third Way
is a think tank that answers America’s challenges with modern ideas aimed at the center.”  They say that Swing Independents make up 15 percent of the vote and currently favor the President by 44 percent to 38 percent over Mitt Romney. However, they claim Obama’s “populist” message is turning them off.

Third way claims, “Swing Independents care about ‘opportunity,’ not fairness, prioritize cutting the deficit over reducing income inequality, don't believe the US economy is skewed to favor the wealthy and consider themselves to be haves, not part of the have nots."  That flies in the face of the fact that “prominent Republicans are admitting that Obama's focus on income in-equality has put the GOP on the defensive,” according to National Public Radio.

Ari Berman, the author of “Herding Donkeys: The Fight to Rebuild the Democratic Party and Reshape American Politics,” says in his NPR article that
Third Way
wants the president and Democratic candidates to drop the populism issue. Berman says, “That would be political suicide, not to mention terrible public policy.”  He also disagrees with
Third Way
that they are the Soccer Moms of 2012 and paints them simply as “fickle souls who can't make up their minds.”

In refuting
Third Way
’s stand on the issues, he quoted a new ABC News/Washington Post poll asking voters: "what do you think is the bigger problem in this country — unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy, or over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity?"  The answers were conclusive:

“Fifty-two percent answered ‘unfairness,’ while only ‘37 percent’ mentioned ‘over-regulation.’ A December 2011 Pew poll found that 61 percent of Americans believe the US economic system ‘favors the wealthy,’ with 36 percent saying it was ‘generally fair.’ In a November 2011 ABC News/Washington Post poll, 61 percent of the public said the federal government should "pursue policies that try to reduce the gap between wealthy and less-well-off Americans," with 35 percent saying it should not.”

Who could possibly argue with the concept that financial equality is one of the most important factors for survival, except the wealthy of course?

Part 2 and the women’s vote tomorrow.

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