Wednesday, April 4, 2012

How do you get rid of conservatives in government? The Hispanic vote

A lot of political attention will be turned toward Arizona in the next few months leading up to the November election, but it’s not because of its paltry number of electoral votes that resulted from Republicans screwing with the primary date.  It’s because of its growing Hispanic voting population that is becoming stronger and more vocal by the day.  It is also due to the country’s fascination and ridicule of the farcical antics of the state’s inept GOP politicians.

To start, the only way Jan Brewer, a Republican, became Arizona’s Governor is her support and signing of the anti-immigration law, SB-1070, and few if any Latinos will forget that.  The author of that bill was state Sen. Russell Pearce, also a Republican, who was the first state senator ever to be recalled.  All this taken into consideration, a new Fox News Latino poll had some interesting results that should scare the hell out of Republicans.

  • President Obama is the overwhelming choice among likely Hispanic voters.  Head to head, the best any of the GOP candidates could do is get 14 percent of their vote.
  • This is a nationwide trend resulting in a rejection of the Republican candidates the more they learn about them.
  • 80 percent of the Hispanics voting for Obama in 2008 would vote for him again in November.

There are five top states where Hispanics represent a sizeable portion of the eligible voting population and they are New Mexico, 42.5%, Texas, 33.7%, California, 27.1%, Arizona, 21.3%, Florida, 19.2%,  There are a number of eligible voters in New Mexico through Florida who are not registered, as follows: 202,650, 2,154,600, 2,026,500, 405,300 and 638,400, respectively.  That’s 5,427,450 potential voters for the progressive side…in just 5 states.

In this same report, Hispanic News evaluates the Latino population in relation to how it might cast its vote.  New Mexico is rated “open/tossup” for the Senate, “very competitive” for President.  Texas, “open/Rep,” no comment for Pres.,  California is considered a Democratic state, Arizona is “open/tossup for Senate,” no comment for Pres., and Florida is “tossup” for Senate and “very competitive” for Pres. 

In other projections, HN says, “By the 2012 election, Latinos will account for over 10% of the citizen adult population - potential voters - in 11 states.  In another 13 states, Latinos account for 5-10% of the citizen adult population. All told, that's 24 states where Latinos have the capacity to influence electoral outcomes…”  There are others with recent significant Hispanic growth.   In Connecticut, Georgia, Penn., Wisconsin and Massachusetts they represent 5% of potential voters.

HN estimates that 21.5 million Latino citizen adults will be eligible to vote in November 2012. That’s up from 19.5 million in 2008, a sizeable increase of almost 10 percent.  I can only speak personally for Arizona, where the anti-immigration rhetoric is much worse than the rest of the country; a fact I believe will have a big effect on the election.  The hate in Arizona shared by white conservatives for illegal immigrants also extends to Barack Obama.

It is too late for the GOP to reverse their tough stand on immigration and this stance has probably already made up the minds of many if not most Hispanics on how they will vote.  Because we live and die on polls, although on occasion they can be completely wrong, it will be interesting to see the first study after Republicans have an official nominee.  If it heavily favors the President, I look for some robust campaigning by the left on immigration reform.

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