Hillary Clinton's "inevitability" is pure bunk

Hillary Clinton said following Super Tuesday results that it was inevitable that she win the Democratic nomination. Sure, and I'm going to be her vice president. Okay, she picked up eight states, six of which were in the South, thus, a win from the black vote. Although Bernie Sanders won only four states, they are more representative of what most of the rest of the country is like: Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont.

Much of this reasoning comes from the early results of Iowa and New Hampshire; the former a tie and the latter a blow out for the Bern. Finally getting around to the April primaries, Clinton takes the lead in most but in two states Sanders runs a close second: Wisconsin, Clinton 45%-Sanders 43% and Rhode Island, 49% to 40%. The others are going to take some work. Now, in a recent analysis, Bernie is capturing some of Hillary's Hispanic supporters.

“Latinos will play a pivotal role in Sen. Sanders’ path to victory in important states like Arizona, Illinois, New York, California and Florida," says Arturo Carmona, Sanders’ deputy political director in an MSNBC article. The Bern won big in Colorado where the Hispanic population is 20.7%. So tracking these five states, Latino numbers are Arizona 29.6%, Illinois 15.8, New York 17.5, Calif. 37.6 and Florida 22.5.

When you add the Millennials to the above, on which Bernie Sanders has a lock, the same states in the same order show the following younger population: Arizona 36.2%, Illinois, 37%, New York 37.4 %, Calif. 38.7% and Florida 34.4%. In 2012 54.9% of the voting age population voted so it is easy to come up with the numbers from the latter percentages. These figures are important in determining Bernie's chances of receiving the Democratic nomination.

But the obvious from all of this is that Hillary Clinton's nomination is not "inevitable" and she and her staff know it. What is inevitable is a long fight where the odds are clearly in favor of the Bern. This is supported by the fact that I reported on Feb. 19, that his surge continued with national polls jumping 14 points against Hillary Clinton in just one month. Will the Clinton camp still be saying the same thing when Bernie passes Hillary in the polls? I think not.

Bernie Sanders Sayings

CEOs of large corporations earn 400 times what their workers make. That is not what America is supposed to be about.

Shouldn't we listen to Vermont to tell us about Bernie Sanders?

Bernie Sanders Vermont shop tattoo

Bernie Sanders and his wife Jane came home to some 4,000 screaming supporters congratulating him on his Super Tuesday success. And rightfully so since he carried the four most diverse states. And the Bern won 86% of the Vermont vote yielding all 16 of the state's delegates. Who in this country knows Bernie Sanders better than the people of Vermont? This man wins elections by tripling his opponents' vote.

From Mayor of Burlington to the U.S. Senate, Sarah A., a 10th-generation Burlingtonian said, “He put us on the map for more than just weed and Ben and Jerry’s.” The Revolution started in Burlington, and Rebecca Haslam exclaimed, now “We are at ground zero of the political revolution.” Poetry professor at the University of Vermont who co-wrote Sanders’ autobiography commented,
“He has been dramatically important to the redefinition of the state.”

It is true that Vermont is a "tiny homogeneous state" almost all white but since starting his campaign, the Bern has shown the he can understand the problems of the black and Hispanic populations. His background in civil rights is not to be questioned. Besides, if you have the passionate urge to help people, all people, like Bernie Sanders does, and have 30 years in government experience to back it up, it would be hard to vote for anyone else for President. Right?

Bernie Sanders Sayings

Minimum wage McDonald's

The minimum wage in Denmark is about twice that of the United States, and people who are totally out of the labor market or unable to care for themselves have a basic income guarantee of about $100 per day.

The Bern collected some good Super Tuesday numbers

Not as much as we wanted but certainly an amount that shows Bernie Sanders is still solidly in the race for President. Sanders has 394 delegates or 16.5% of those needed. Clinton has 577 or 24.2%. What you have to consider looking at these figures is that the numbers include six states with reasonably heavy black populations: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

With a more diversified profile in states like Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma Bernie did well; and of course in his home state of Vermont.

In yesterday's blog I covered states in the balance of March including Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Florida, Illinois, No. Carolina, Arizona and Washington state. The states encompass 960 delegates. Based on past results along with Super Tuesday, some recent polling and general analysis, I think the Bern will collect 323 new delegates. With the 386 he now has that is a new total of 709. That will give Clinton 637 for a total through March of 1,214.

Understand, Bernie could do much better in the above states as his national polling improves and if his popularity within the Hispanic community continues to rise. Said I would get into April today but will start that tomorrow.

Bernie Sanders Sayings

For every $1 billion we invest in public transportation, we create 30,000 jobs, save thousands of dollars a year for each commuter, and dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Bernie Sanders beyond Super Tuesday

Nebraska caucus votes on March 5, with Bernie Sanders polling 66.52% and Hillary Clinton 33.68% as of March 1. There are 30 delegates. The Maine caucus votes on March 6, with no late polling available. There are 30 delegates. Michigan's primary is March and as of February 17, Hillary was ahead 10 points. There are 148 delegates. Florida's primary is March 15, with Clinton at 59%, Sanders 33%. There are 246 delegates.

The Illinois primary also March 15, finds Sanders trailing Clinton by 11 points. There are 182 delegates. Missouri the same day, no late data available. There are 84 delegates. Also March 15, North Carolina, where Clinton is at 52% to 35% but the race is tightening. There are 121 delegates. Arizona is March 22, with Clinton at 56.2%, Sanders 21.5%. There are 85 delegates. Washington state caucus isn't until March 26, with no meaningful polling numbers to date. There are 118 delegates.

These eight states are not all the primaries and caucuses being held through the month of March but those most likely to yield a significant number of delegates, win, lose or tie. Starting with April tomorrow.