Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Obama increases lead by 6 points-Romney drops 2 points

While the GOP convention did little for Mitt Romney—no doubt because neither he nor Paul Ryan had anything to say—it pushed Barack Obama to a new high of 52% to Romney’s 46% in a CNN/ORC poll.  The poll, taken Monday, shows who had the strongest convention, providing the most substance in what they plan to do for the country.  Obama was tied with Romney prior to the conventions. 

Obama also exceeded Romney in fundraising bringing in $114 million compared to $111 million in recent contributions.  Following the Republican convention, Romney’s favorable rating increased to 53%, dropping right after Charlotte to 48%.  51% of likely voters felt that Obama has the best outlook for running the country compared to Romney’s 41%.  There was a switch of who had the most targeted plan to help America; after Charlotte, Obama now 45%, Romney 39%.

OK, polls are like people, they are fickle as all get out.  But what I have heard from most political pundits is that at least they measure the pulse of the moment, and we are talking about a well-known pollster in CNN/ORC.  And the “moment” this poll recorded was how the American public felt after two conventions, each representing an opposite side of the political spectrum.  It would indicate that the voters, at least for the moment, think Obama is best for the country.

Just before the convention, Obama and Romney were tied at 48%.  That shows there was little enthusiasm for the GOP candidate following Tampa which would indicate to me that Romney and Ryan either didn’t get across their message or they conveyed the wrong message.  Either way, it means that Republicans are stumbling down the homestretch with a campaign that is beginning to sound like the shallow charade it is, particularly to Independents and undecideds.

As an example, all the way back to Paul Ryan’s dismantling of Medicare and a national budget that even George W. Bush said was irresponsible, to the current Medicare version from Romney that still throws Seniors under the bus, so many details are left out that most have no idea what he would really do.  It is that uncertainty that is driving many undecided voters over to the Democrats.  In President Obama’s case he would stick with the plan but with some revisions.

On the personal side, the Democrats in Charlotte tanked Romney’s gains from Tampa sending them from a post convention number of 53% to 48% after the end of the Dems convention.  Obama also came away with a better comfort zone on leading the country in the future with 51% compared to Romney’s 41%.  And men were more supportive of Democrats in the poll most likely due to the fact that Obama saved the auto industry and was responsible for bin Laden’s death.

The Bloomberg National Poll in June measured how the public feels Obama is doing in the running of the country.  45% said they were better off compared to 36% who said they were worse off.  The balance remained the same or were just undecided.  Just before President Obama was elected in 2008, 89% of Americans thought the country was on the wrong track compared to 62% today.  All these figures are a mandate for the job Barack Obama has done in office.

Back in July Romney said he would repeal Obama’s Affordable Care Act to make way for real healthcare reform.  Today the candidate says he would keep parts of “Obamacare.”  Yet more flip-flopping on healthcare dating back to his passage of a very similar law as Gov. of Massachusetts, then to the repeal of Obama’s Act, to now keeping certain provisions.  The man obviously has no idea what he really wants to do as President and it is beginning to show up more in the polls.

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