Monday, November 14, 2016

There's hope-a duo of predictions for Donald Trump's resignation or impeachment


Allan Lichtman
Michael Moore was right when he predicted Donald Trump could win last July. But this is what he said on Huff Post re. Trump's staying power: “Here’s what’s going to happen, this is why we’re not going to have to suffer through four years of Donald J. Trump, because he has no ideology except the ideology of Donald J. Trump." What have we seen that the President-elect has either said or advocated that wasn't connected to the well-being of Donald Trump? Nothing.

Interestingly enough, Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., also forecasted the win. But, then, he has predicted nine consecutive presidential election results based on a model he created that consists of 13 factors. He doesn't believe in polls and kicks sand at all the data mining fanatics that depend entirely on numbers. At the same time. Lichtman also felt that Donald Trump would be impeached.

Nate Silver's 538 Blog, which has called several presidential elections correctly, picked Hillary Clinton for a win right up to Nov. 8, 71.4% to Trump's 28.6%. Others foresaw the actual outcome which you can see here. Allan Lichtman had 13 true false statements but Michael More decided based on just 5 reasons. They are:
 Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit; The Last Stand of the Angry White Man; The Hillary Problem; The Depressed Sanders Vote; and The Jesse Ventura Effect.
Each is an interesting look at election psychology, and you can read them here.

Could Donald Trump surprise us all and turn out to be a fine, upstanding President? But, with very limited thought, little chance.



Sunday, November 13, 2016

Protesters against Donald Trump election everywhere


Donald Trump election protesters
Thousands hit the streets from San Francisco to Washington, DC, as well as Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Boston; Chicago; Denver; Philadelphia; Portland, Oregon; Seattle. And, it's not letting up, entering the fourth day of demonstrations. CNN reported, "One college student showed CNN a sign that said, 'I still can't believe I have to protest for civil rights.'" Is it fair to say that we have a relatively large proportion of the public unhappy with Donald Trump?

It's bad enough that we have a flawed election process where several people are chosen as electors by the two political parties--but not Independents--sometimes with no relationship to the will of the public. Electoral votes put George W. Bush in office in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016. In both cases the popular vote elected Al Gore and Hillary Clinton. If you're interested an Electoral College explanation here, why we don't get rid of it here.

On the other hand, Donald Trump talked in extremes during his candidacy saying he would repeal Obamacare, put Hillary Clinton in jail, and send all of the illegals back home. Just to garner the votes of the racists, bigots and radicals in general. It worked. And he added a few others who voted simply for change. I would like to know the percentage of his supporters who voted blind, with no clue to the issues of the Trump campaign.

Had they looked, they still wouldn't have found any. And now these poor souls have learned that that their idol for change is already reversing himself on Obamacare, Hillary Clinton and immigration. One might wonder if these people will have the gumption to stand up to the man who is letting them down. I've said it before and will say it again, it is this kind of profile that rushes to the voting booth with their double-digit IQs, voting accordingly.

The election outcome protesters of the last few days knew the issues of their candidate, Hillary Clinton, and even though many had rather have had Bernie Sanders on the ticket, they voted in protest to keep Donald Trump out of the White House. It didn't work. Or rather it did, but the Electoral College undercut their efforts. Progressives have a lot to do to get this country back in shape.


Latino Chants of "¡Si se puede!" as Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio loses big


The Hispanic community of Arizona can rest easier after the decisive defeat of Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Tuesday's election, at least until January 20, 1917. I talked to one Latino as he finished grooming our yard, ready to ask him if he voted but he asked me first. I said, "Yes, did you?" His answer was a quick "Yes." I didn't ask him who he voted for but I'm betting as far as the Sheriff's race is concerned, it was probably Paul Penzone, Arpaio's opposition.

Don't know how my guy voted in the Presidential election either but Hispanics accounted for 11% of the total vote and favored Clinton by better than two to one. In 2008 Obama received 67% of the vote but the Latino turnout was only 9%. Once again this ethnic group did not step up to the plate. They also offered no help in the Arizona legislature where the stupid laws like the 2010 immigration bill that was eventually gutted.

I am more inclined to believe the white population of Arizona was finally fed up with Joe Arpaio, sick of the grandstanding to feed his ego, and at least $55 million in lawsuits against him and his department. And recently he was personally indicted on contempt of court charges he will have answer without his shield to back him up. Not sure what state's position will be on paying future legal bills. Knowing this state, anything is possible.

Hillary Clinton was supposed to ace the Hispanic vote but she barely held on to Obama's 2008 numbers. Either the Dems just aren't approaching the Latino community right, the latter just don't give a shit about their future, or it's all Hillary's fault. The future of the Democratic Party is significantly in question right now. Where are you Bernie?





Saturday, November 12, 2016

World doesn't agree with U.S. election of President


Trump's supporters may be in ecstasy right now but the rest of the world is in a state of disbelief over the outcome of the election. Here's a quote from the Pew Research poll taken last June:
"In seven of 15 countries outside of the U.S. polled by Pew Research Center, Trump’s ratings are in the single digits. Large majorities in 11 of the countries have little or no confidence in the prospective Republican presidential nominee ability to manage international affairs. That includes 92 percent of Swedes, 89 percent of Germans and 82 percent of Japanese."
He's going to have to come out more than just running to overcome that; a sprint probably won't even do it. NBC News describes it as follows: "Disbelief, horror and downright mockery." And we have to live with these people as a nation unless we plan to become isolationists. You must take a look at the above underlined NBC News article and marvel over the front pages of newspapers worldwide.

As when Trump started his campaign, we are the laughing stock of the world...again.

Opinion to chill out over Trump only partially right


Timothy Stanley's headline, "Liberals, chill out about Trump victory," sounds comforting but he goes way too far. He's right about the courts holding Donald Trump in line and the fact that the 2018 election will certainly take into consideration how the President-elect fares in his first two years. And also the rights of the LGBT community. But he is dead wrong about him cutting taxes, repealing Obamacare, and his choice of Supreme Court justices.

Good God man, have you forgotten the disaster of the Geo. W. Bush fiasco, a fact that 20 million people are now covered by health care plans that weren't before the ACA? And for my money, we are only headed for some disastrous years with the addition of Trump's Court nominees. Conservatives won't admit it but the Citizens United decision has made a mockery of the election process and there is no way we will repeal that under Trump.

There is some contradiction to the above, considering that all of Hillary Clinton's massive ad buys in the millions didn't help her. But in the end it only proves that the Democrats nominated the wrong candidate. Most of us knew all along that it should have been Bernie Sanders.


Friday, November 11, 2016

Did 82% of Bernie Sanders supporters vote for Hillary Clinton?



I am not sure and here is why.

Everyone is saying a disgruntled "rural" population is what elected Donald Trump, one that claims they are always overlooked. But the question is, what is the "rural" population?
According to the U.S. Census Dept., "Rural encompasses all population, housing, and territory not included within an urban area." 
Further, "To qualify as an urban area, the territory identified according to criteria must encompass at least 2,500 people, at least 1,500 of which reside outside institutional group quarters."
My contention is that many of Bernie Sanders supporters came from the suburbs of urban areas like Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, San Francisco, and the list goes on. Are they mistakenly included in this rural identification and, if so, what are their numbers. My reasoning is that the farm population is only 2% of the total U.S., the rural population only 19%, but maybe it is only a matter of semantics.

It's one thing for 82% of Bernie's people to "say" they were going to vote for Clinton. The question is,did they? Remember, according to Politico, back in November, 71% of GOP insiders said ..."the polls understate Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they are backing the controversial Republican nominee." But when Democrats were asked this, only 26% agreed.

We may never know but one thing is for sure, 2016 will go down as they most bizarre election to ever take place in the U.S.

Bernie Sanders will be a thorn in Donald Trump's behind


Bernie Sanders
It isn't sour grapes since Bernie Sanders didn't have a chance at beating Donald Trump. Had he, he would have. It's just that Bernie recognizes and isn't afraid to verbalize his concerns about the potential of a Trump administration. One of the last major politicians to release a statement, this is what he said:
"Donald Trump tapped into the anger of a declining middle class that is sick and tired of establishment economics, establishment politics and the establishment media. People are tired of working longer hours for lower wages, of seeing decent paying jobs go to China and other low-wage countries, of billionaires not paying any federal income taxes and of not being able to afford a college education for their kids — all while the very rich become much richer."
I don't want to put words in his mouth, but it is almost as if the inference is that Donald Trump's rants of change may have picked up some of the Revolution's supporters when Bernie was beaten by Hillary Clinton. He added this to the above:
"To the degree that Mr. Trump is serious about pursuing policies that improve the lives of working families in this country, I and other progressives are prepared to work with him. To the degree that he pursues racist, sexist, xenophobic and anti-environmental policies, we will vigorously oppose him."
It is obvious that Bernie Sanders, The Revolution, and staunch Progressives will cautiously eye the movements of the President-elect. This blog will be devoted to that mandate in the future.

Donald Trump Says He Will Be Indicted On Tuesday

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